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来源: 南方日报网络版     时间:2019-11-14 09:25:37



每天早上7点半更新NYT/BI头条,有手工翻译哦,喜欢英语新闻的请关注本订阅号↑↑中国将可能发布2009年以来最弱的GDP增速Reuters, Jan.12A man clears rubbish at a closed market near the Central Business District (CBD) area, outside a construction site in Beijing, China, October 26, 2015.(路透社这幅图配的也太那个啥了)BEIJING (Reuters) - China is expected to post its weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, adding pressure on policymakers to take more steps to ward off a sharper slowdown that could jolt global markets.北京(路透社)——中国四季度将可能发布全球金融危机以来最弱的经济增长速度,这给政策制定者们增加了更多的压力、采取更多措施以避免经济剧烈下滑并引发全球市场震荡

A renewed plunge in Chinas stock markets and the yuan have stoked concerns among global investors about the health of the worlds second-biggest economy, although analysts see few signs of an abrupt drop-off in activity.近期中国股市的大跌和人民币贬值已经使得全球投资者增加了对这个世界第二大经济体的担心,尽管分析师们只看到了很少的突然下跌迹象

Growth in fourth-quarter gross domestic product likely slowed to 6.8 percent from the same period last year, down from 6.9 percent in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll of 50 economists.第四季度的GDP增速同比可能放缓到6.8%,比第三季度的6.9%有所降低,依据路透社50名经济学家的投票

That would be the weakest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2009, when growth tumbled to 6.2 percent.这是2009年一季度以来最弱的经济增幅,当时经济增速跌到了6.2%

The highest forecast in the poll was 7.1 percent and the lowest was 5.3 percent, though some investors fear current growth levels could already be much weaker than the official data will suggest.经济学家的投票中,最高的预测是7.1%,最低是5.3%,尽管一些投资人担心当前的实际增长水平已经要比官方数据更弱

"The weaknesses in both domestic and external demand have exacerbated the deflationary pressures in the economy," economists Qu Hongbin and Julia Wang at HSBC said in a note.“内需和外需的疲弱已经给经济增加了通缩的压力”,汇丰银行的经济学家曲红兵和王茱莉在报告中说

"Going into 2016, weak domestic as well as external demand will continue to weigh on growth."“展望2016年,内外需的疲弱将继续给经济增长施加压力

”Economic growth for the full year is expected to have cooled to its slowest pace in 25 years of 6.9 percent in 2015 from 7.3 percent in 2014, a central bank work paper said recently.央行在最近的工作报告中说,2015年全年的经济增速将降至25年最低的6.9%,而2014年的增速是7.3%

Beijings growth target for 2015 was "around" 7 percent, with the government rejecting suggestions that the figures were being inflated to meet official forecasts.北京关于2015年的增长目标是 “7%左右”,同时政府否认了那些说数字已经被调升以符合官方预测的论调

Polands President Andrzej Duda (L) and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping take a podium before a signing ceremony following their meeting at the Great Hall of the People on November 25, 2015 in Beijing, China.Fiscal stimulus eyed面临着财政刺激While the government is expected to lean more on fiscal policy to support growth this year, the central bank may still need to keep monetary policy accommodative to help cushion the impact of structural reforms on the economy.今年政府预计将更加依赖于财政政策来支持经济增长,央行仍然需要保持货币政策的灵活性来缓和经济结构性的改革

Top leaders also pledged to push forward "supply-side reform" to help generate new growth engines, while tackling factory overcapacity and property inventories.最高领导人还保证推进“供给侧改革”来帮助新经济引擎的生长,同时解决过剩产能和房地产库存

The government could widen this years budget deficit to about 3 percent, the biggest in perhaps half a century, as leaders turn to tax cuts and increased spending to support growth, policy advisers say, after disappointing returns from a year of monetary policy easing.政府可能放宽今年的财政赤字率到GDP的3%,达到近半个世纪以来的最高值


The government is expected to target economic growth of at least 6.5 percent in 2016 - in line with a new five-year plan to fulfill a previously announced goal of doublingGDP and per capita incomes by 2020 from 2010 levels, policy insiders say.政府可能将把2016年的经济增长目标定至最低6.5%,政策知情人说,这刚好符合五年计划中2020年的GDP和人均收入比2010年翻一翻的目标

Analysts at Barclays expect the central bank to deliver two cuts in interest rates totaling 50 basis points and two cuts in bank reserve ratios totaling 100 basis points in the first half of 2016.巴克莱银行的分析师说,2016年上半年,中国央行可能两次降息共计0.5%、两次降低存款准备金率共计1%

"We think the supply-side reforms emphasized by the government are likely to slow investment and pose strong headwinds to growth, at least in the short term," analysts at Barclays said in a note.“我们认为政府所强调的‘供给侧改革’很可能使得投资放缓,并给增长带来较强的阻力,至少在短期是如此”,巴克莱银行的分析师在一篇报告中说

The central bank has already cut interest rates six times since November 2014, and reduced the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves to spur activity.央行从2014年11月以来已经有6次降息,并且5次降低了银行的存款准备金率

Other support measures have included more government spending on infrastructure and easing down payment requirements and other curbs on the cooling property sector.其他的支持政策可能包括更多的基础设施投资,减少冷却中的房地产市场所需的首付和各种限制

Shen Yuxi (L), introduces analysis software to investors at a “street stock salon” in central Shanghai, China, September 5, 2015.(上海街头股票沙龙)Monthly data12月数据预测A raft of monthly indicators will be released with the GDP data on Jan. 19, and analysts will be looking for signs as to whether momentum is still fading or if the economy may be slowly stabilizing.月度经济数据和GDP将于1月19日发布,到时分析师们将寻找迹象来判断经济是继续下行还是低位企稳

Factory output likely grew 6.0 percent in December from a year earlier, slightly down from November, as firms struggle to cope with persistent deflationary pressures due to overcapacity and softening demand.工业产出12月份同比增长6%,比11月份轻微下滑,因为企业正面临着产能过剩和需求疲软带来的持续通缩压力

Annual growth of fixed asset investment, a crucial driver of Chinas economy, likely eased to 10.2 percent in 2015 - the weakest expansion in nearly 15 years.年度固定资产投资增速,作为中国经济的关键动力,2015年可能降至10.2%,达到15年以来的最低点

Annual retail sales growth was seen at 11.3 percent in December, rising slightly from the previous months growth of 11.2.12月份的零售额增长率可能达到11.3%,比11月份的11.2%有所增加

The customs office is due to publish December trade figures on Wednesday. Exports were expected to have dropped 8 percent in December after sliding 6.8 percent in November and imports may have declined 11.5 percent in December from a year earlier, according to analysts polled by Reuters.本周三海关将发布12月份的外贸数据,出口可能下滑8%(11月份下滑6.8%),进口可能下滑11.5%,根据路透社分析师们的投票


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